Thursday, February 26, 2004

That's terrible news about BJ Ryan not "simming" well. I had ranked BJ #3 out of all the relievers based on defense-independent pitching stats (DIPS), i.e., K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. BJ's numbers, and their ranking among the top 80 or so pitchers I looked at, were as follows:

11.32 K/9, ranked 4th. Very studly
4.85 BB/9, ranked 73rd. Weak, but typical of several other high-K relievers.
0.18 HR/9, ranked numero uno--1 HR in 50.1 innings

My model weights the HR/9 highly so BJ was ranked near the top. When Jeff picked BJ despite there being several dozen others available with better traditional stats, I thought it was quite astute.

So why should we care? San Shin had asked rhetorically whether DM has its Voros McCracken engine turned on. It's premature to answer, but based on this one example, the engine hasn't been installed, oiled, fueled, or even conceived. This is not good news for the 116'ers since it formed the basis for my pitching draft strategy. The DIPS model was why I selected Miguel Batista as my 4th starter, which left several of you scratching your collective noggins. Batista's 0.61 HR/9 was easily the best in the field at the time.

Another explanation could be Ryan's splits: .497/.745 OPS against L/R, respectively. Maybe the DM manager isn't smart enough to pull him against righties?

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